Lucas Hauser '23: Merkel’s Acceptance of Refugees was in Germany’s Demographic Self-Interest
In 2015, Germany received over 900,000 asylum-seekers as the Syrian Civil War forced millions to flee into Europe in search of safety and a new life. German Chancellor Angela Merkel adopted a generous policy towards these refugees. Her decisions became a lightning rod for criticism of Merkel and the CDU by extremist politicians, such as the AfD, which strengthened in elections afterward. Germany’s demographic situation means that the acceptance of refugees was in the national self-interest. This is explained by the Demographic Transition Model.
The essence of the Demographic Transition Model (DMT) is the theory, based on observations of countries’ populations, that nations will undergo a population boom as they become economically advanced, but the growth will then slow to below replacement level. As countries industrialize, birthrates in the short run remain high while increased technology, medical care, and standards of living improve the average lifespan and reduce infant mortality. This causes a temporary swell in population growth with the birth rate far exceeding the death rate. In the past 20 years, we have seen this with countries, such as Nigeria, and many others from Sub-Saharan Africa.
However, further, into demographic transition, birthrates fall due to declining infant mortality rates, which causes the change to have fewer children per family. Increased access to contraceptives and family planning, which are correlated with more economically developed countries, also helps reduce the birthrate.
Germany has undergone the transition and is left with a birthrate lower than replacement level, which means the population will shrink unless there is migration. Additionally, Germany is the fourth-oldest country on the planet, according to the CIA World Factbook, with a median age of 47.8 years. This creates many demographic challenges for Germany that have large consequences and are not easy to fix. Taking care of an aging population, funding overwhelmed social programs, and maintaining a productive and globally competitive workforce is demographically impossible with Germany’s current trajectory.
A sign welcomes migrants to Germany
Credit: The Wall Street Journal
The essence of the Demographic Transition Model (DMT) is the theory, based on observations of countries’ populations, that nations will undergo a population boom as they become economically advanced, but the growth will then slow to below replacement level. As countries industrialize, birthrates in the short run remain high while increased technology, medical care, and standards of living improve the average lifespan and reduce infant mortality. This causes a temporary swell in population growth with the birth rate far exceeding the death rate. In the past 20 years, we have seen this with countries, such as Nigeria, and many others from Sub-Saharan Africa.
However, further, into demographic transition, birthrates fall due to declining infant mortality rates, which causes the change to have fewer children per family. Increased access to contraceptives and family planning, which are correlated with more economically developed countries, also helps reduce the birthrate.
Germany has undergone the transition and is left with a birthrate lower than replacement level, which means the population will shrink unless there is migration. Additionally, Germany is the fourth-oldest country on the planet, according to the CIA World Factbook, with a median age of 47.8 years. This creates many demographic challenges for Germany that have large consequences and are not easy to fix. Taking care of an aging population, funding overwhelmed social programs, and maintaining a productive and globally competitive workforce is demographically impossible with Germany’s current trajectory.
A sign welcomes migrants to Germany
Credit: The Wall Street Journal
Comments
Post a Comment