Joshua Link '23 | Parties Negotiate for Power After German Election

The CDU’s election night event

One month ago, Germans went to the polls to pick a successor to retiring Chancellor Angela Merkel. Though the election results have already been decided, it will be a few months before we know who the next Chancellor will be, depending on which parties form a coalition in the Bundestag.

Looking at the election results, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) secured the most votes, with 206 seats in the Bundestag and about 26% of the popular vote, followed by Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with 196 seats out of 735 and about 24% of the popular vote. Die Grünen (the Greens) received the third most votes with 118 seats and 14.8% of the vote and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) won 92 seats and 11.5%. These four parties are considered the main contenders in the government formation process. Other parties did not receive enough seats to be considered major players in coalition talks or have been outright rejected by all other parties.

The process of forming a coalition in Germany is simple but time-consuming. A coalition requires the support of at least 368 members of the Bundestag, meaning at least two parties must come to some agreement to govern together. Any agreement will feature concessions between the coalition members and therefore will take much negotiation. The chosen coalition will decide the next Chancellor, who will likely be the leader of the largest party in the coalition.

There are a number of possible coalitions that could form in the coming months.

First is the “traffic-light coalition,” which would be led by the SPD and include the FDP and Grünen. The SPD, which is a working-class, center-left party, aligns relatively well with die Grünen, who are also center-left but with a more environmentalist focus and a base among wealthier Germans. The FDP, as a center-right, business-centric party, may have some clashing interests with the other two parties.

The next most-likely coalition is a “Jamaica coalition,” which would be led by the socially conservative CDU and include the FDP and Grünen. While the CDU and FDP would align relatively well as center-right parties, the Grünen may clash with the other two parties due to its more left lean, threatening the unity of this coalition.

Ultimately, a traffic-light coalition is expected by most in German politics, though a Jamaica coalition is possible. Any other combination would be quite unlikely. Regardless, with months of negotiations ahead to form a majority government and work out intra-coalition priorities, seeing who Germany’s next leaders will be and under what conditions is a long way off.